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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.