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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."